columbia basin climategoblin commander units
From ecosystems, communities, and infrastructure, to our way of lifeeverything will be affected. Blue lines show the average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). In addition to creating these datasets, the RMJOC agencies worked together to adopt a set of methods for incorporating these data into those longer-term planning activities. These hydrologic studies support detailed assessment of the economic impacts of climate change on irrigation and important crops in WA (Yorgey et al., Citation2011), which in turn will inform decisions regarding best use of funding to improve water supply benefits in WA under climate change. Those who wish to do additional post-processing of the existing VIC data can access the archived model output. The results were only slightly better than those achieved in the large-scale calibration. Fig. Lows in the lower 50s. Fig. Hydrologic sensitivity of global rivers to climate change. Ltude a produit une squence de traitements de donnes de bout en bout, la fine pointe, partant d'une sortie brute de modle climatique pour aboutir une srie de produits de modlisation hydrologique, qui sont offerts la communaut d'utilisateurs via une base de donnes Web. The CBCCSP database has been a valuable public resource that has dramatically reduced costs in a number of high-visibility studies in the PNW and western United States focused on technical coordination and planning. What Matters Most: Are Future Stream Temperatures More Sensitive to Changing Air Temperatures, Discharge, or Riparian Vegetation? Detailed forecast for Lower Columbia Basin of Washington Rest Of Today Partly sunny. Cited by lists all citing articles based on Crossref citations.Articles with the Crossref icon will open in a new tab. Fig. Fig. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Nakienovi et al. The CBCCSP was developed to address these diverse needs. For the future scenarios, the range of the projections (pink shading) is plotted. 2860, 59th Legislature (WA 2006). The PET is shown to increase dramatically over most of the domain (primarily because of warming in the scenarios), whereas AET shows widespread declines east of the Cascade Range. This advance through the native forest has been driven, primarily, by cattle ranching. This diagnosis is confirmed by the R 2 values for the same sites, which are generally higher and more consistent with neighbouring values over the entire domain. These annual peak daily flows are then ranked and assigned a quantile value using an unbiased quantile estimator based on the method of Cunane (Stedinger, Vogel, & Foufoula-Georgiou, Citation1993). (Citation2010). Gridded meteorological datasets (daily total precipitation and maximum and minimum daily temperature) at 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution (approximately 7km by 5km) were constructed for the study from observed station records for the period 1915 to 2006. Future work on the project will likely focus on expanding the number of streamflow sites for which products are available (e.g., inclusion of additional sites in coastal Oregon in the site-specific products) and providing a comprehensive suite of products associated with CMIP5 results (Taylor, Stouffer, & Meehl, Citation2012) associated with IPCC AR5. Figures and summary tables for long-term average monthly precipitation, monthly average temperature, evapotranspiration, PET4 (Table 2), PET5 (Table 2), total column soil moisture, SWE, combined flow (runoff+baseflow). The Hot and the Cold of It Summer comes on strong. Les simulations dcoulements de crue et dtiage augmentent en intensit pour la plupart des sites fluviaux compris dans cette tude. Bias corrected inflows were produced to support the GENESYS and HYDSIM reservoir operations models, which are used by the NWPCC and BPA, respectively, for main-stem studies in the CRB (e.g., NWPCC, Citation2005). Fig. (For example, Dworshak and Milner are nested within the larger Ice Harbor sub-basin.). Hamlet, and S.-Y. %PDF-1.6 % Determining surface water availability in Oregon. Small black dots indicate streamflow sites where naturalized flows were not available. 3099067 (2000). The top two panels show the Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) (left) and R 2 (right) for the calibration period, while the two lower panels show NSE (left) and R 2 (right) for the validation period. Similarly, three different downscaling approaches were used in the study, each with its own advantages and limitations in the context of different natural resources management applications (Hamlet et al., 2010a). In particular, it is clear that Canada will have not only about 50% of the reservoir storage in the CRB (Hamlet, Citation2003) but also an increasingly dominant portion of the natural water storage as snowpack in the future. Naturalized and modified streamflow data were used to produce bias-corrected streamflow realizations (see below). Uniqueness is also evident by looking at the Columbia River Basin. Bias-correction procedures provide an alternative statistical approach that effectively avoids these difficulties (Shi, Wood, & Lettenmaier, Citation2008; Snover et al., Citation2003). Because of space limitations, we will not be able to cover these alternative modelling efforts in this paper. Thanks also to Nancy Stephan (BPA), John Fazio and Jim Ruff (NWPCC), Allan Chapman and Ben Kagasniemi (BCME), and Barry Norris (OWRD) for their contributions to the initial study design. For the CD and HD downscaling methods, which construct a 91-year time series for both historical and future time periods, three future time periods were selected: 2020s (20102039), 2040s (20302059), and 2080s (20702099). The CBCCSP, in particular, provided access to additional scenarios and downscaling methods that provided a range of hydrologic outcomes associated with uncertainty in the climate projections, which the WACCIA assessments largely did not. People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read. Les rsultats de ltude montrent de profonds changements dans l'accumulation de neige au printemps et des dplacements radicaux de neige ou pluie et neige mles vers principalement pluie dans presque tout le domaine. A calibrated 1/16 degree latitude-longitude resolution implementation of the VIC hydrologic model over the Columbia River basin was used to produce historical simulations and 77 future hydrologic projections associated with three different statistical downscaling methods and three future time periods (2020s, 2040s, and 2080s). Highs around 80. Saturday Night And Sunday: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. The VIC model (version 4.0.7) was implemented at 1/16 degree resolution, with three active soil layers and up to five elevation bands with an approximate spacing of 500m. The model was run in water balance mode with a snow model time step of 1h and a water balance time step of 24h. The model was coupled to a simple daily-time-step routing model (Lohmann, Raschke, Nijssen, & Lettenmaier, Citation1998), which was used to produce daily flow estimates at each of the approximately 300 streamflow locations included in the study. The greater Mississippi River Basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in North America and the fourth largest basin in the world. Littell, J. S., Elsner, M. M., Mauger, G. S., Lutz, E. R., Hamlet, A. F., & Salath, E. P. (2011). Results from the study show profound changes in spring snowpack and fundamental shifts from snow to rain-dominant behaviour across most of the domain. The CBCCSP was designed from the outset to support users with a very wide range of technical sophistication and capacity. Associated shifts in streamflow timing from spring and summer to winter are also evident in basins with significant snow accumulation in winter (for the current climate). Lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Dark red lines show the average of the climate change ensemble. Changes in the 1 April snowpack have been shown to depend strongly on winter temperature regimes (Hamlet, Mote, Clark, & Lettenmaier, Citation2005; Mote, Citation2006; Mote et al., Citation2005). Twenty-one daily time-step output variables were archived for the VIC simulations (Table 2). Highs in the lower 80s. For more information, please visit our Permissions help page. 6). The VIC model has been widely applied in climate change studies at both the regional scale (e.g., Christensen & Lettenmaier, Citation2007; Lettenmaier, Wood, Palmer, Wood, & Stakhiv, Citation1999; Maurer, Citation2007; Maurer & Duffy, Citation2005; Payne et al., Citation2004; Van Rheenen, Wood, Palmer, & Lettenmaier, Citation2004) and global scale (e.g., Adam, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2009; Nijssen, O'Donnell, Hamlet, & Lettenmaier, Citation2001). The study was also unique in that this was the first time that these agencies had run their own reservoir operation models to assess climate change impacts in the CRB, an element of the study design which greatly increased the impact of the study conclusions in the agencies involved. Associated shifts in streamflow timing from spring and summer to winter are also evident in basins that currently have significant snow accumulation in winter, whereas rain-dominant basins show minimal shifts in streamflow timing. Fig. Pink bands show the range of nine or ten HD climate change scenarios for B1 and A1B emissions scenarios for three future time periods. Isaak DJ et al. A low pressure system slowly moving offshore is forecast to spin moisture into the Columbia Basin Sunday as it meanders closer to the Southern Oregon Coast. This approach was partly based on practical limitations on time and computational resources but was also informed by previous experience using the VIC model at finer spatial scales. 7 Left panel: Simulated historical 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) (upper right) and percentage changes in 1 April SWE for two emissions scenarios and three future time periods extracted from the CD VIC scenarios. This web site provides streamflow information for the Columbia River and coastal drainages in Washington and Oregon State for the 21st century based on a large number of climate scenarios and model experiments. Over the last several years, the USFS and USFWS have engaged with the CIG to produce a set of initial climate change hydrologic scenarios over much of the west using a common methodology intended to support landscape-scale assessment of climate change impacts (Littell et al., Citation2011). Retrieved from, Climate change and resource management in the Columbia River Basin. 95 0 obj <> endobj Simulated widespread increases in soil moisture recharge in fall and winter in areas with significant snow accumulation in winter (for the current climate) support hypotheses of increased landslide risk and sediment transport in winter in the future. Flooding in the Columbia River basin expected to increase under climate change Date: February 10, 2021 Source: Oregon State University Summary: The Columbia River basin will see an increase. A detailed climate change assessment report was prepared by the CIG for Seattle City Light (Snover et al., Citation2010) based primarily on the CBCCSP database. 1 Map of the selected streamflow locations supported by the CBCCSP. Communities across the region and around the world are demonstrating that its possible to adapt, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and continue to thrive. Simulation of spatial variability in snow and frozen soil, A multi-model ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River basin, CIG (Climate Impacts Group). Changes in PET (PET3, see Table 2) and AET (see Table 2) are shown in Fig. (unpublished manuscript). The multi-model ensemble 30-year mean annual temperature increases by 2.8 C (5.0 C) by late 21st century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) over the 1979-1990 baseline, with 18% (24%) more warming in summer. Figures and summary tables for flood statistics and low-flow statistics. Typical month of historical flooding events is shown by the colour of the dots in the scatter plot (legend inset in the upper right corner), by permission of I. Tohver, A.F. The Columbia Basin-Boundary region is already experiencing a climate thats different from 50 years ago. Key products from the study include summary data for about 300 river locations in the PNW and monthly Geographic Information System products for 21 hydrologic variables over the entire study domain. The HD method was also selected as the basis for the main summary products derived for each river location (see description below), primarily because it was capable of providing good performance over the complete range of products produced by the CBCCSP (Hamlet et al., 2010a). Obtain permissions instantly via Rightslink by clicking on the button below: If you are unable to obtain permissions via Rightslink, please complete and submit this Permissions form. Source: Bonneville Power Administration. The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of other members of the CBCCSP research team at the UW including Lara Whitely Binder, Pablo Carrasco, Jeffrey Deems, Carrie Lee, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Tyler Kamstra, Jeremy Littell, Nathan Mantua, Edward Miles, Kristian Mickelson, Philip W. Mote, Erin Rogers, Eric Salath, Amy Snover, and Andrew Wood. About 10 locations show negative NSE scores, which usually occurs when the simulations are strongly biased in comparison with observations. Hi/Low, RealFeel, precip, radar, & everything you need to be ready for the day, commute, and . Snow water equivalent, the water content of the snowpack expressed as a depth, Peak snow water equivalent to cool-season precipitation ratio, Washington Climate Change Impacts Assessment. 3 Summary map of 80 streamflow locations (out of a total of 297) for which error statistics between simulated and naturalized flows were computed. Tague, Grant, Farrell, Choate and Jefferson (Citation2008) showed analogous differences between watersheds in the PNW based on the relative contribution of groundwater to base flows. REVEL=Columbia River at Revelstoke Dam, CORRA=Kootenay River at Corra Linn Dam, WANET=Pend Oreille River at Waneta Dam, LIBBY=Kootenai (Kootenay) River at Libby Dam, DWORS=N. Fork Clearwater River at Dworshak Dam, MILNE=Snake River at Milner, ICEHA=Snake River at Ice Harbor Dam, PRIRA=Columbia River at Priest Rapids Dam, YAPAR=Yakima River at Parker, DALLE=Columbia River at The Dalles, OR, WILFA=Willamette River above falls at Oregon City. 8). The NSE scores for about 20 sites are marginal (between 0.3 and 0.7). These approaches were further developed and refined during the WACCIA in 2009 (Miles, Elsner, Littell, Binder, & Lettenmaier, Citation2010), which included assessments of aquatic and forest ecosystem impacts (Littell et al., Citation2010; Mantua, Tohver, & Hamlet, Citation2010). Columbia River Basin Basin Overview . The CBCCSP provided climate change projections of meteorological drivers and a calibrated VIC implementation in support of the study. The dark red lines show the average of the climate change ensemble. hb```"V* aB@{= ,!It#GjWeyP1% Lee. Get the forecast for today, tonight & tomorrow's weather for Guarant do Norte, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River basin, Washington, USA, Potential implications of PCM climate change scenarios for California hydrology and water resources, The role of climate forecasts in western U.S. power planning, Flow regime, temperature and biotic interactions determine winners and losers among trout species under climate change, Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics, Projected changes in climate, snowpack, evapotranspiration and streamflow in the Canadian portion of the Columbia River basin, The distributed hydrology soil vegetation model, A distributed hydrology-vegetation model for complex terrain, Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs, Long range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern U.S, Multi-objective global optimization for hydrological models. The VIC implementations make use of preprocessed soil and vegetation databases for the basin of interest. (Citation2010), but the essential idea behind the methods is that monthly gridded data are based only on serially complete and quality-controlled HCN and AHCCD stations (thus ensuring self-consistent long-term trends based on the same group of stations), but daily variations within the month come from re-gridded daily co-op station data, which add additional spatial detail on an event basis at daily time scales (Hamlet & Lettenmaier, Citation2005). For climate change studies in the western United States where snow is an important element of the hydrologic cycle, the model's use of a sophisticated energy-balance snow model, which incorporates important effects on snow accumulation and melt associated with vegetation canopy (Andreadis, Storck, & Lettenmaier, Citation2009) has been a notable advantage. La base de donnes du CBCCSP s'est avre une ressource publique prcieuse qui a permis de rduire normment les cots lis un certain nombre dtudes de haute visibilit dans la rgion pacifique nordouest et dans l'ouest des tatsUnis axes sur la coordination technique et la planification. Confirming the sensitivity to warming demonstrated in earlier studies, the CBCCSP results show widespread reductions in the 1 April snowpack, and systematic reductions in the long-term average SWE2PR, a measure of the importance of snow in the hydrologic cycle (Fig. This daily disaggregation technique sometimes introduces an undesirable discontinuity in the bias-corrected daily values at the beginning and end of months. Explore this website to learn more about the changes were expecting, and what we can do about them. Friday Mostly sunny. The Water Hub contains numerical and spatial data, reports, photos and other types of information about streams, lakes, wetlands, groundwater, snow, glaciers and climate in the Columbia Basin both historical and current. Incidence of Bactericera cockerelli (Hemiptera: Triozidae) under different pesticide regimes in the lower Columbia basin. Those who lack their own hydrologic model, but wish to make additional runs themselves, can obtain the calibrated VIC model implementation. This extreme scenario, however, was only run by a few GCMs, which ultimately limits the ability to show consistent ranges of outcomes for each emissions scenario. Ten GCM projections for the A1B scenario and nine projections for the B1 scenario (Table 1) were selected based on a ranking of the GCMs reflecting the combined ability of each GCM to reproduce key features of PNW climate variability, including the seasonal cycle of precipitation, observed trends in temperature in the late twentieth century, bias in reproducing historical temperature and precipitation, and ability to capture key features of observed climate variability (spatial patterns of temperature, pressure, and precipitation) over the North Pacific (Mote & Salath, Citation2010).